Latest agent report · 2026-09-15 16:30 · report_run_20260915_163001.md
NumerIQ Agent Report — 2026-09-15
Run ID: run_20260915_163001 Rounds: 5
Agent Summary
I'll start by gathering macro conditions, market regime, and signals for all my open positions in a single batch. Macro is benign (VIX 17.1, risk_on, yield curve +0.33, no recession flag). No positions past horizon. Let me review my positions:
Position review:
- ABNB $168.32 — C/73.8, all bullish but d1 -1.62 negative. Above $166 stop by ~$2.30. On-notice, holding.
- CRL $272.88 — C/72.4, d1 -3.48 rolling over. Above $265 stop by ~$8. Holding but weakest.
- MPC $410.84 — B/82.0, all bullish, now +10% (+$1236). d1 negative but that's noise on a strong name. Stop $372.
- PSX $264.93 — B/82.8, all bullish, +5.1%. Stop $242.
- VLO $397.04 — C/74.4, all bullish, +3% now. Stop $354.22.
None breached stops. MPC is now a clear winner (+10%). Let me check whether MPC is 4.0+ ATR above entry to see if a stop-raise is permitted, and screen for opportunities. MPC stop-raise check: entry $373.32, current $410.84. That's $37.52 gain / ATR20 $11.67 = ~3.2 ATR above entry — still under the 4.0 ATR threshold, so no raise permitted. PSX: entry $252.02, current $264.93 = $12.91 / $7.01 = ~1.8 ATR, also no raise. Correct to hold stops per rules.
Let me deep-dive the top fresh candidates. MRNA is parabolic (+123%, skip). Let me check the next-best structural candidates: CRM, NOW, QCOM, MOS. Evaluating the fresh candidates against my quality bar (Grade A/B, all-windows bullish, positive/accelerating leading derivatives, clean fits, no jump):
- MRNA — parabolic +123%, skip.
- CRM — C/69.1, d1 +3.41 positive/accelerating, all bullish, but long-window fits soft (0.847-0.86). Best leading action of the batch but grade C and I've been burned repeatedly on CRM (rolled over twice). Borderline.
- NOW — C/71.0, d1 +2.96 positive/accelerating BUT broken long-window fits (0.685, 0.717, 0.72) and a hot 5d +8.23% blowoff. Fail.
- QCOM — F/44.4, NEUTRAL, two bearish windows (60d, 90d). Fail.
- MOS — C/71.0, d1 -0.82 negative, 120d neutral, broken fits. Fail.
- CF — D/61.0, d1 -4.52 rolling over hard. Fail.
The strongest is CRM, but it's only Grade C with soft long-window fits (0.847/0.847) and it's an IT name where the whole sector's been choppy. My scorecard is brutal on Grade C entries: -2.99% avg return, -4.21% alpha, beat SPY only 17%. Grade B/C entries are exactly what's been hurting me. CRM doesn't clear the bar decisively — it's a repeated burn name and grade C. I'll pass.
No candidate clears the quality bar. Holding ~46% cash in a narrow-breadth tape (only 34.6% above 50d MA) is a deliberate, defensible choice given my negative recent alpha comes precisely from marginal Grade B/C entries.
Let me log the decision. Daily analysis complete for 2026-09-15.
Summary:
- Macro: Benign — VIX 17.1, risk_on regime, but breadth is narrow (only 34.6% above 50d MA). No recession flag (yield curve +0.33).
- Positions (5, all held): No stops breached, none past horizon.
- MPC (+10%) and PSX (+5%) are working well as structural leaders, but both are under the 4.0-ATR threshold required to raise a stop, so I left stops unchanged per the hard rule.
- VLO (+3%) intact.
- ABNB and CRL both flagged on-notice near their stops — if either breaches next run, I exit.
- New buys: None. The screen produced nothing that clears my quality bar. MRNA is parabolic; CRM/NOW/MOS are Grade C with soft/broken fits or blowoffs; QCOM is F-grade with bearish windows; CF is D-grade rolling over. My scorecard shows Grade-C entries lose (-4.21% alpha), so I'm not forcing a marginal name.
- Cash: ~46% held deliberately in a narrow-breadth cooldown tape. My negative recent alpha traces directly to marginal B/C entries — the discipline of waiting for a clean Grade A/B name with positive, accelerating leading derivatives is the correct response.
Used 0 of 6 daily trades. Decision logged (id 118).
